Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.28 – 85.46

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±18.1

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 38.4Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 46.84Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 53.04Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.9 ±16.9

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 8.76Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 75.5Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

877Pi Rho 'botics @ North Star

Provisional

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 1.2Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6146, 8255, 11283

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6146, 8255, 11283

Auto

23.5 16%

Teleop

76.3 53%

Endgame

43.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6628, 7028, 877

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6628, 7028, 877

Auto

27.8 35%

Teleop

46.2 58%

Endgame

5.1 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.3pts

Blue projected score85.5pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.8
Score range: 62–161
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 129.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.9Season APEX404.9

23.5Auto27.8

76.3Teleop46.2

43.4Endgame5.1

97Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	53
teleop	143	39
endgame	100	10
foul	0	0
total	275	102

Result

Final score

275 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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