Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.36 – 45.71

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.1 ±12.8

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 76.55Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 3.79Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 89.02Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.5 ±18.2

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 2.89Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 9.43Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6749tERAbytes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.9Event APEX 33.39Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8255, 5464, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8255, 5464, 2883

Auto

47.4 28%

Teleop

84.4 50%

Endgame

35.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2450, 3026, 6749

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2450, 3026, 6749

Auto

14.7 33%

Teleop

16.7 37%

Endgame

13.3 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.4pts

Blue projected score45.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.7
Score range: 18–197
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.1Season APEX224.5

47.4Auto14.7

84.4Teleop16.7

35.5Endgame13.3

119Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	20
teleop	81	3
endgame	20	0
foul	5	0
total	136	23

Result

Final score

136 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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