Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.59 – 129.86

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.8 ±17.7

6749tERAbytes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.9Event APEX 36.27Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -9.7Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 74.02Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.9 ±13.9

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 45.68Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 70.66Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 13.52Rank 14Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6749, 8188, 7578

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6749, 8188, 7578

Auto

17.9 19%

Teleop

46.6 50%

Endgame

29.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4539, 3293, 7235

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4539, 3293, 7235

Auto

19.6 16%

Teleop

84.7 70%

Endgame

17.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.6pts

Blue projected score129.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.3
Score range: 77–154
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 131.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.8Season APEX364.9

17.9Auto19.6

46.6Teleop84.7

29Endgame17.3

75Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	39
teleop	22	15
endgame	27	20
foul	0	0
total	72	74

Result

Final score

72 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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