Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.2 – 152.28

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.1 ±14.5

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 80.25Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -3.21Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 55.16Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±14.1

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 92.44Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 40.52Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 19.32Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5653, 5929, 6709

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5653, 5929, 6709

Auto

19.7 15%

Teleop

76.2 58%

Endgame

34.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 4360, 4239

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 4360, 4239

Auto

37.8 25%

Teleop

105.6 70%

Endgame

8.2 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.2pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.1
Score range: 109–175
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.1Season APEX401.9

19.7Auto37.8

76.2Teleop105.6

34.8Endgame8.2

162Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	26
teleop	93	103
endgame	65	51
foul	0	0
total	178	180

Result

Final score

178 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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