Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.95 – 85.27

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427 ±16.9

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 34.84Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6749tERAbytes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.9Event APEX 12.56Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 41.55Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.2 ±20.5

8586Firebirds Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 65.42Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6453Bog Bots!

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 17.06Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 2.79Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6709, 6749, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6709, 6749, 1710

Auto

21.9 24%

Teleop

66.4 73%

Endgame

2.1 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8586, 6453, 8188

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8586, 6453, 8188

Auto

20.7 24%

Teleop

45.8 52%

Endgame

21.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89pts

Blue projected score85.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 62–112
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427Season APEX206.2

21.9Auto20.7

66.4Teleop45.8

2.1Endgame21

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	7
teleop	98	13
endgame	44	13
foul	20	0
total	202	33

Result

Final score

202 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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