Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.66 – 92.32

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.3 ±15.6

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX -0.59Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX -0.6Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 18.85Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.2 ±14.5

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 54.49Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 41.72Rank 14Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -3.89Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3023, 3278, 8878

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3023, 3278, 8878

Auto

-2.6 0%

Teleop

7.2 38%

Endgame

14.5 76%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4607, 7235, 5929

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4607, 7235, 5929

Auto

18.0 21%

Teleop

49.4 58%

Endgame

18.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score17.7pts

Blue projected score92.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.7
Score range: -6–116
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 131.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.3Season APEX366.2

-2.6Auto18

7.2Teleop49.4

14.5Endgame18.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	20
teleop	14	45
endgame	13	14
foul	0	0
total	47	79

Result

Final score

47 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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