Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.26 – 77.01

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 112.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.5 ±12.2

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 71.45Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 21.97Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 63.84Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.9 ±14.5

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 26.16Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -6.35Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 57.2Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7257, 3313, 3293

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7257, 3313, 3293

Auto

19.5 14%

Teleop

73.9 54%

Endgame

42.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 6%

Blue · 876, 4239, 2654

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 876, 4239, 2654

Auto

8.3 12%

Teleop

31.3 44%

Endgame

32.0 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 6%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score77pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.2
Score range: 54–180
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.5Season APEX349.9

19.5Auto8.3

73.9Teleop31.3

42.7Endgame32

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	45
teleop	94	123
endgame	57	46
foul	30	5
total	241	219

Result

Final score

241 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 112.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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