Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.84 – 130.21

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±16.8

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 60.24Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 61.42Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3300Midwest WARRIORS

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 39.18Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.5 ±15.6

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 17.33Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 58.97Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 53.91Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4226, 8255, 3300

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 8255, 3300

Auto

24.0 17%

Teleop

75.6 52%

Endgame

44.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11283, 6175, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11283, 6175, 2883

Auto

10.5 8%

Teleop

78.0 62%

Endgame

37.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.8pts

Blue projected score130.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.6
Score range: 108–183
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.2Season APEX462.5

24Auto10.5

75.6Teleop78

44.4Endgame37

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	50
teleop	62	159
endgame	40	68
foul	0	0
total	128	277

Result

Final score

128 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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