Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.3 – 111.21

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.3 ±13.9

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 46.08Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 23.74Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 48.48Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.8 ±14.5

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 89.48Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 25.27Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -3.54Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3313, 5658, 4226

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3313, 5658, 4226

Auto

39.4 36%

Teleop

46.3 43%

Endgame

22.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4607, 7068, 8188

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4607, 7068, 8188

Auto

34.0 31%

Teleop

42.8 40%

Endgame

31.4 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.3pts

Blue projected score111.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.1
Score range: 83–146
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.3Season APEX363.8

39.4Auto34

46.3Teleop42.8

22.8Endgame31.4

81Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	29
teleop	25	36
endgame	38	13
foul	25	0
total	101	78

Result

Final score

101 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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