Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

42.53 – 28.99

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.3 ±18.2

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX -16.35Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 61.89Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

877Pi Rho 'botics @ North Star

Provisional

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -3.01Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.2 ±15.6

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 9.43Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX -0.15Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 19.71Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10173, 4360, 877

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10173, 4360, 877

Auto

23.9 59%

Teleop

12.8 32%

Endgame

3.7 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7068, 6628, 4480

/ 100 compat

Projected

29 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7068, 6628, 4480

Auto

11.5 59%

Teleop

5.8 30%

Endgame

2.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42.5pts

Blue projected score29pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.5
Score range: 6–66
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 90 vs event baseline 126.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.3Season APEX230.2

23.9Auto11.5

12.8Teleop5.8

3.7Endgame2.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	19	3
endgame	13	14
foul	0	0
total	54	36

Result

Final score

54 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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