Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.32 – 162.97

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.2 ±15.8

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 2.64Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 54.05Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 72.63Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±13.5

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 20.03Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 54.66Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 88.28Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2450, 5638, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2450, 5638, 5653

Auto

16.9 13%

Teleop

70.4 54%

Endgame

42.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3275, 7578, 4593

/ 100 compat

Projected

163 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3275, 7578, 4593

Auto

19.1 12%

Teleop

88.2 54%

Endgame

56.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.3pts

Blue projected score163pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.7
Score range: 107–185
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.2Season APEX402.9

16.9Auto19.1

70.4Teleop88.2

42.4Endgame56

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	38
teleop	109	147
endgame	58	45
foul	5	0
total	202	230

Result

Final score

202 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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