Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.06 – 104.43

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.6 ±15

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 59.34Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -4.81Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 11.53Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602 ±11.7

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 27.96Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 63.27Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 13.2Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4181, 5929, 3278

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4181, 5929, 3278

Auto

10.4 16%

Teleop

26.0 40%

Endgame

29.1 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1710, 3276, 4198

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1710, 3276, 4198

Auto

28.3 27%

Teleop

74.2 70%

Endgame

3.4 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66.1pts

Blue projected score104.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.4
Score range: 44–126
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.6Season APEX602

10.4Auto28.3

26Teleop74.2

29.1Endgame3.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	32
teleop	29	89
endgame	22	22
foul	0	5
total	65	148

Result

Final score

65 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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