Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.56 – 0.94

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 76.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.5 ±19.3

6453Bog Bots!

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 19.96Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 18.72Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 44.88Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.3 ±14.5

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 10.58Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX -7.83Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX -1.81Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6453, 6146, 3134

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6453, 6146, 3134

Auto

14.5 19%

Teleop

43.2 57%

Endgame

17.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7677, 3313, 4539

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7677, 3313, 4539

Auto

-7.2 100%

Teleop

-8.0 100%

Endgame

10.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.6pts

Blue projected score0.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.6
Score range: -21–106
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 122.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.5Season APEX268.3

14.5Auto-7.2

43.2Teleop-8

17.8Endgame10.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	68	86
endgame	41	14
foul	0	0
total	122	115

Result

Final score

122 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 76.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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