Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.77 – 85.08

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.8 ±15

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 17.96Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 62.44Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 56.37Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.2 ±13.5

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 44.27Rank 14Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 10.38Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 30.43Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4239, 6175, 6709

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4239, 6175, 6709

Auto

25.5 19%

Teleop

78.7 57%

Endgame

33.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7235, 5464, 3277

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7235, 5464, 3277

Auto

8.9 11%

Teleop

48.2 60%

Endgame

22.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.8pts

Blue projected score85.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.7
Score range: 63–159
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.8Season APEX317.2

25.5Auto8.9

78.7Teleop48.2

33.3Endgame22.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	16
teleop	79	30
endgame	21	35
foul	5	0
total	123	81

Result

Final score

123 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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