Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.57 – 96.46

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

213 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 95.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±15.9

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 14.53Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 2.32Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8586Firebirds Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 20.72Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.1 ±15

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 20.57Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 64.81Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 11.08Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4226, 7028, 8586

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 7028, 8586

Auto

7.8 23%

Teleop

14.9 44%

Endgame

11.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4480, 2654, 3023

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4480, 2654, 3023

Auto

13.1 13%

Teleop

53.3 55%

Endgame

31.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.6pts

Blue projected score96.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.9
Score range: 16–118
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.7Season APEX277.1

7.8Auto13.1

14.9Teleop53.3

11.1Endgame31.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	19
teleop	135	55
endgame	24	38
foul	0	0
total	213	112

Result

Final score

213 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 95.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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