Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.24 – 149.8

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 110 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.8 ±15.8

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 22.53Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX -17.38Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 16.09Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.9 ±12.9

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 46.19Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 47.61Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 56Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5638, 3026, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5638, 3026, 4607

Auto

7.2 32%

Teleop

18.2 81%

Endgame

-3.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5653, 4360, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5653, 4360, 7257

Auto

25.8 18%

Teleop

83.5 58%

Endgame

34.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score21.2pts

Blue projected score149.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.6
Score range: 0–171
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.8Season APEX489.9

7.2Auto25.8

18.2Teleop83.5

-3Endgame34.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	50
teleop	79	131
endgame	35	57
foul	5	10
total	143	248

Result

Final score

143 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 110 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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