Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.02 – 69.59

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 83.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164 ±20.5

3300Midwest WARRIORS

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 45.43Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 21.43Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9745Lazer Sharkz

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 14.16Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.9 ±15.9

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 36.39Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6749tERAbytes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.9Event APEX 2.34Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 30.86Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3300, 6628, 9745

/ 100 compat

Projected

81 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3300, 6628, 9745

Auto

8.6 11%

Teleop

45.4 57%

Endgame

25.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4593, 6749, 3293

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4593, 6749, 3293

Auto

11.3 16%

Teleop

44.6 64%

Endgame

13.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81pts

Blue projected score69.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.4
Score range: 50–101
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 111.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164Season APEX470.9

8.6Auto11.3

45.4Teleop44.6

25.9Endgame13.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	34
teleop	32	139
endgame	10	57
foul	30	0
total	74	230

Result

Final score

74 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 83.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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