Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.92 – 98.57

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 21

Prediction missed · off by 76.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.9 ±13.5

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 25.6Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 25.75Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 22.57Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±17.3

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 58.57Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

877Pi Rho 'botics @ North Star

Provisional

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 12Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 28Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8188, 2883, 876

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8188, 2883, 876

Auto

17.3 24%

Teleop

44.8 63%

Endgame

9.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8878, 877, 7048

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8878, 877, 7048

Auto

13.2 14%

Teleop

54.6 56%

Endgame

29.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.9pts

Blue projected score98.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.6
Score range: 54–119
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.9Season APEX222.8

17.3Auto13.2

44.8Teleop54.6

9.2Endgame29.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	12
teleop	71	7
endgame	36	2
foul	5	0
total	150	21

Result

Final score

150 – 21

Prediction missed · off by 76.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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