Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.72 – 81.72

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 37.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.2 ±17.5

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 14Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 30.15Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 6.57Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.3 ±14.5

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX 14Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 45.43Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 22.29Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3275, 11283, 2450

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3275, 11283, 2450

Auto

10.5 21%

Teleop

29.4 58%

Endgame

10.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10173, 7530, 7068

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10173, 7530, 7068

Auto

26.3 33%

Teleop

46.0 57%

Endgame

8.0 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.7pts

Blue projected score81.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 30–103
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 118.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.2Season APEX200.3

10.5Auto26.3

29.4Teleop46

10.7Endgame8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	27
teleop	51	8
endgame	30	7
foul	0	5
total	91	47

Result

Final score

91 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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