Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

228.54 – 267.14

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±11.7

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 77.11Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 41.33Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 110.1Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 24.36Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 110.78Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 132Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3277, 4539, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3277, 4539, 1710

Auto

59.5 26%

Teleop

119.0 52%

Endgame

48.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7048, 3276, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 3276, 7257

Auto

49.2 19%

Teleop

140.7 54%

Endgame

70.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.5pts

Blue projected score267.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.6
Score range: 201–295
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 153.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.9Season APEX489.7

59.5Auto49.2

119Teleop140.7

48.5Endgame70.6

64Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	62
teleop	102	97
endgame	38	38
foul	0	5
total	223	202

Result

Final score

223 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 pts

Match videos

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