Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.92 – 67.85

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.3 ±12.2

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 30.27Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 13.72Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 28.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.1 ±10.5

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 28.61Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 11.4Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 27.84Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5607, 5190, 5518

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 5190, 5518

Auto

20.9 34%

Teleop

27.6 45%

Endgame

13.4 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6004, 5511, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6004, 5511, 8205

Auto

14.6 22%

Teleop

36.8 56%

Endgame

14.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.9pts

Blue projected score67.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.1
Score range: 48–93
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 110.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.3Season APEX149.1

20.9Auto14.6

27.6Teleop36.8

13.4Endgame14.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	18	29
endgame	21	21
foul	0	15
total	56	93

Result

Final score

56 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 21 pts

Match videos

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