Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.67 – 75.51

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.4 ±8.8

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 193.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 25.11Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 243.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.3 ±12.2

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 30.54Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 15.53Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 29.44Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 10121, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9032, 10121, 9496

Auto

85.2 19%

Teleop

270.3 59%

Endgame

102.7 22%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 5190, 5518

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~0.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 5190, 5518

Auto

20.7 32%

Teleop

29.0 44%

Endgame

15.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score461.7pts

Blue projected score75.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 386.2
Score range: 56–482
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.4Season APEX144.3

85.2Auto20.7

270.3Teleop29

102.7Endgame15.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	21
teleop	116	8
endgame	58	1
foul	0	15
total	254	45

Result

Final score

254 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 pts

Match videos

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