Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.32 – 53.5

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

60 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.1 ±10.5

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 28.86Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 10.85Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 24.61Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±12.8

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 27.54Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 8.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 17.89Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6004, 5511, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6004, 5511, 8205

Auto

12.7 21%

Teleop

33.7 55%

Endgame

15.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2682, 10260, 10072

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2682, 10260, 10072

Auto

20.3 43%

Teleop

15.8 34%

Endgame

10.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score53.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.8
Score range: 34–84
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 97 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.1Season APEX239.3

12.7Auto20.3

33.7Teleop15.8

15.2Endgame10.9

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	33	9
endgame	4	8
foul	0	0
total	60	37

Result

Final score

60 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Match videos

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