Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.33 – 59.49

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.8 ±10.4

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 23.34Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 39.67Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 17.32Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±11.7

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 19.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 19.95Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 20.49Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10077, 10302, 8746

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 10302, 8746

Auto

19.0 24%

Teleop

44.8 56%

Endgame

16.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 11353, 6242

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 11353, 6242

Auto

23.3 38%

Teleop

20.4 34%

Endgame

16.9 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.3pts

Blue projected score59.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.8
Score range: 39–100
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 111.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.8Season APEX161

19Auto23.3

44.8Teleop20.4

16.6Endgame16.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	28
teleop	38	40
endgame	13	19
foul	0	0
total	82	87

Result

Final score

82 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 14.6 pts

Match videos

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