Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.5 – 49.35

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.7 ±11

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 60.45Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 16.44Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 63.61Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±12.8

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 26.3Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 6.35Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 16.7Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5160, 6908, 6500

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5160, 6908, 6500

Auto

20.7 16%

Teleop

77.1 58%

Endgame

34.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2682, 10260, 10072

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2682, 10260, 10072

Auto

21.0 42%

Teleop

17.7 36%

Endgame

10.8 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.5pts

Blue projected score49.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.2
Score range: 29–161
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.7Season APEX239.3

20.7Auto21

77.1Teleop17.7

34.2Endgame10.8

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	20
teleop	121	12
endgame	34	11
foul	0	30
total	192	73

Result

Final score

192 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Match videos

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