Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.24 – 73.49

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.1 ±10.5

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 30.72Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 12.08Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 25.44Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±10.4

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 32Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 29.72Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 11.77Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6004, 5511, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6004, 5511, 8205

Auto

12.4 19%

Teleop

34.6 54%

Endgame

17.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11179, 6888, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11179, 6888, 10248

Auto

19.8 27%

Teleop

39.7 54%

Endgame

13.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.2pts

Blue projected score73.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.2
Score range: 48–93
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 111.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.1Season APEX147.5

12.4Auto19.8

34.6Teleop39.7

17.3Endgame13.5

0Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	14
teleop	35	68
endgame	8	43
foul	0	0
total	59	125

Result

Final score

59 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Match videos

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