Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.07 – 74.45

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±11.7

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 21.41Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 21.25Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 22.41Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.3 ±12.2

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 30.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 29.04Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 15.37Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8738, 11353, 6242

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 11353, 6242

Auto

23.3 35%

Teleop

23.0 35%

Endgame

19.7 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 5518, 5190

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 5518, 5190

Auto

21.3 31%

Teleop

31.4 46%

Endgame

16.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.1pts

Blue projected score74.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.4
Score range: 45–94
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 112.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161Season APEX144.3

23.3Auto21.3

23Teleop31.4

19.7Endgame16.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	20
teleop	12	25
endgame	4	14
foul	0	30
total	41	89

Result

Final score

41 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.