Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

425.67 – 156.66

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.4 ±8.8

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 181.5Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 12.81Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 231.36Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.7 ±11

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 63.76Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 23.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 69.89Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 10121, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9032, 10121, 9496

Auto

84.1 20%

Teleop

244.1 58%

Endgame

94.7 22%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5160, 6908, 6500

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.7 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5160, 6908, 6500

Auto

21.8 14%

Teleop

90.5 60%

Endgame

38.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score425.7pts

Blue projected score156.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 269
Score range: 137–446
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 110.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.4Season APEX226.7

84.1Auto21.8

244.1Teleop90.5

94.7Endgame38.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	37
teleop	147	112
endgame	67	59
foul	20	0
total	299	208

Result

Final score

299 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 89 pts

Match videos

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