Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.79 – 64.76

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±10.4

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 35.94Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 34.8Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 14.05Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±11.7

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 19.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 22.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 22.96Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11179, 6888, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11179, 6888, 10248

Auto

19.0 23%

Teleop

43.9 52%

Endgame

21.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 11353, 6242

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 11353, 6242

Auto

23.9 36%

Teleop

24.5 37%

Endgame

17.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.8pts

Blue projected score64.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20
Score range: 45–105
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 110.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.5Season APEX161

19Auto23.9

43.9Teleop24.5

21Endgame17.3

61Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	32
teleop	49	36
endgame	34	22
foul	5	0
total	110	90

Result

Final score

110 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Match videos

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