Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.58 – 130.08

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 111.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.7 ±12.2

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 12.29Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 17.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX -10.02Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487 ±10.8

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 88.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 12.29Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 29.73Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9296, 11353, 5190

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9296, 11353, 5190

Auto

12.3 77%

Teleop

2.4 15%

Endgame

1.2 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9496, 6242, 2682

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9496, 6242, 2682

Auto

43.1 35%

Teleop

73.4 60%

Endgame

6.7 5%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.6pts

Blue projected score130.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.5
Score range: 5–145
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 82.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.7Season APEX487

12.3Auto43.1

2.4Teleop73.4

1.2Endgame6.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	74
teleop	3	162
endgame	3	109
foul	0	0
total	28	345

Result

Final score

28 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 111.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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