Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.3 – 124.05

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.8 ±12.2

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 14.87Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 14.86Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 24.57Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.8 ±11.7

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 78.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 24.18Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 21.71Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8746, 10072, 5511

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8746, 10072, 5511

Auto

15.1 30%

Teleop

24.9 50%

Endgame

10.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 5518, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 5518, 10248

Auto

41.5 35%

Teleop

64.9 55%

Endgame

10.6 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.3pts

Blue projected score124.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.7
Score range: 38–140
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 89.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.8Season APEX135.8

15.1Auto41.5

24.9Teleop64.9

10.2Endgame10.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	17
teleop	13	27
endgame	6	11
foul	10	0
total	33	55

Result

Final score

33 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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