Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.29 – 31.75

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.5 ±10.4

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 30.31Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 37.55Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 24.43Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 97.6 ±13.3

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 17.58Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 3.09Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 11.08Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5607, 10302, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 10302, 10077

Auto

22.8 26%

Teleop

41.6 48%

Endgame

21.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11161, 8758, 3893

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11161, 8758, 3893

Auto

10.2 31%

Teleop

15.9 48%

Endgame

7.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.3pts

Blue projected score31.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.5
Score range: 11–113
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.5Season APEX97.6

22.8Auto10.2

41.6Teleop15.9

21.7Endgame7

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	39	8
endgame	23	0
foul	0	5
total	83	27

Result

Final score

83 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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