Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.08 – 32.57

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86.7 ±12.7

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 18.33Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 18.05Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 13.7Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.5 ±12.2

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 17.25Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 12.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 3.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11161, 6908, 5511

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11161, 6908, 5511

Auto

12.9 29%

Teleop

24.3 55%

Endgame

6.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 5190, 10260

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 5190, 10260

Auto

19.3 58%

Teleop

14.1 42%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score32.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.5
Score range: 13–70
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86.7Season APEX148.5

12.9Auto19.3

24.3Teleop14.1

6.9Endgame0

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	14	23
endgame	0	32
foul	0	0
total	37	75

Result

Final score

37 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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