Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.9 – 82.92

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.7 ±11.2

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 17.52Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 32.15Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 61.23Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±10.4

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 30.2Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 23.2Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 29.52Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9296, 6004, 5160

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9296, 6004, 5160

Auto

21.0 19%

Teleop

58.8 52%

Endgame

32.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 10121, 2682

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 10121, 2682

Auto

19.0 25%

Teleop

35.4 46%

Endgame

23.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.9pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28
Score range: 63–131
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 110.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.7Season APEX244.1

21Auto19

58.8Teleop35.4

32.6Endgame23

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	25
teleop	40	17
endgame	22	8
foul	30	0
total	99	50

Result

Final score

99 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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