Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.48 – 233.14

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.4 ±11.7

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 23.11Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 27.02Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 22.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376 ±11.2

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 12.63Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 36.5Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 184.01Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6242, 10077, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6242, 10077, 11353

Auto

24.7 33%

Teleop

26.6 36%

Endgame

22.5 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10072, 10302, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10072, 10302, 9032

Auto

41.4 18%

Teleop

140.5 61%

Endgame

47.9 21%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.5pts

Blue projected score233.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.7
Score range: 52–253
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 109.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.4Season APEX376

24.7Auto41.4

26.6Teleop140.5

22.5Endgame47.9

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	40
teleop	19	170
endgame	15	75
foul	5	5
total	68	290

Result

Final score

68 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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