Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.18 – 321.52

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.9 ±11.7

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 1.4Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 30.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 29.2Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.2 ±9.4

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 235.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 65.17Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 20.52Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8758, 11179, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.2 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8758, 11179, 5607

Auto

17.6 31%

Teleop

16.2 29%

Endgame

22.9 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9496, 6500, 8746

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9496, 6500, 8746

Auto

50.8 16%

Teleop

193.2 61%

Endgame

73.7 23%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.27 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.2pts

Blue projected score321.5pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -260.3
Score range: 42–341
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 107.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.9Season APEX474.2

17.6Auto50.8

16.2Teleop193.2

22.9Endgame73.7

24Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	82
teleop	52	205
endgame	10	39
foul	5	0
total	89	326

Result

Final score

89 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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