Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.72 – 232.83

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.5 ±12.2

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 15.4Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 29.44Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 15.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.6 ±9.3

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 182.28Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 30.7Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 19.85Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5190, 10077, 10072

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.7 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5190, 10077, 10072

Auto

17.5 29%

Teleop

34.2 56%

Endgame

9.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9032, 6004, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9032, 6004, 11353

Auto

45.4 19%

Teleop

142.3 61%

Endgame

46.4 20%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.42 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.7pts

Blue projected score232.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.1
Score range: 42–252
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 107.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.5Season APEX377.6

17.5Auto45.4

34.2Teleop142.3

9.6Endgame46.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	50
teleop	9	135
endgame	8	69
foul	0	5
total	30	259

Result

Final score

30 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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