Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.18 – 72.34

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.3 ±11

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 14.79Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 34.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 20.7Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.1 ±12.2

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 59.78Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 13.71Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -1.15Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3893, 2682, 8738

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3893, 2682, 8738

Auto

12.7 18%

Teleop

37.0 52%

Endgame

20.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5160, 5511, 8758

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5160, 5511, 8758

Auto

7.9 11%

Teleop

32.5 47%

Endgame

28.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.2pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.2
Score range: 50–92
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 108.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.3Season APEX126.1

12.7Auto7.9

37Teleop32.5

20.8Endgame28.7

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	24
teleop	18	53
endgame	3	22
foul	0	0
total	40	99

Result

Final score

40 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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