Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.27 – 265.25

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.8 ±11.7

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 28.19Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX -19.32Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 29.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±10.8

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 17.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 232.34Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 15.77Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10077, 7443, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.3 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 7443, 8205

Auto

15.8 42%

Teleop

16.0 42%

Endgame

6.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11353, 9496, 9296

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11353, 9496, 9296

Auto

58.0 22%

Teleop

154.5 58%

Endgame

51.8 20%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.38 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.3pts

Blue projected score265.3pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -227
Score range: 19–284
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 107.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.8Season APEX391.4

15.8Auto58

16Teleop154.5

6.1Endgame51.8

0Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	84
teleop	31	171
endgame	16	52
foul	0	0
total	59	307

Result

Final score

59 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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