Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.08 – 48.58

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±11.7

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 22.71Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 66.77Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 30.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.4 ±12.8

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -1.99Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 15.57Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 35Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8738, 6500, 5518

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 6500, 5518

Auto

17.0 15%

Teleop

72.0 63%

Endgame

26.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8758, 9296, 10302

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8758, 9296, 10302

Auto

12.0 25%

Teleop

18.3 38%

Endgame

17.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.1pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.5
Score range: 30–139
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.6Season APEX145.4

17Auto12

72Teleop18.3

26.2Endgame17.8

0Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	16
teleop	63	35
endgame	23	14
foul	0	0
total	92	65

Result

Final score

92 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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