Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.26 – 61.57

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.3 ±11

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 10.37Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 27.08Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 27.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.6 ±12.8

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 21.44Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 17.65Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 22.48Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5190, 6888, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5190, 6888, 5607

Auto

25.1 45%

Teleop

19.5 35%

Endgame

10.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10121, 10072, 6242

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10121, 10072, 6242

Auto

18.6 33%

Teleop

18.8 33%

Endgame

19.2 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.3pts

Blue projected score61.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 43–84
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 105.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.3Season APEX122.6

25.1Auto18.6

19.5Teleop18.8

10.7Endgame19.2

50Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	24
teleop	41	30
endgame	17	18
foul	0	0
total	81	72

Result

Final score

81 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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