Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.32 – 90.79

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.8 ±11.2

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 14.53Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX -6.99Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 188.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141 ±11

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 25.09Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 53.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 12.37Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10248, 7443, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10248, 7443, 9032

Auto

35.0 18%

Teleop

123.7 64%

Endgame

35.8 18%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10077, 5160, 6908

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 5160, 6908

Auto

13.4 15%

Teleop

47.2 54%

Endgame

26.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score90.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.5
Score range: 72–215
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 105.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.8Season APEX141

35Auto13.4

123.7Teleop47.2

35.8Endgame26.6

62Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	31
teleop	33	77
endgame	22	27
foul	0	0
total	85	135

Result

Final score

85 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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