Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.63 – 59.46

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

94 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277 ±11.2

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 16.19Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 32.97Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 30.47Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.2 ±12.2

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 17.05Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 28.33Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 14.08Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10072, 2682, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10072, 2682, 6004

Auto

15.1 19%

Teleop

34.6 43%

Endgame

31.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9296, 11179, 3893

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9296, 11179, 3893

Auto

19.4 32%

Teleop

22.2 36%

Endgame

19.7 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.6pts

Blue projected score59.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.2
Score range: 40–99
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 107.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277Season APEX149.2

15.1Auto19.4

34.6Teleop22.2

31Endgame19.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	59	41
endgame	14	0
foul	0	0
total	94	61

Result

Final score

94 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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