Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.68 – 69.12

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.6 ±11.7

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -4.08Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 17.06Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 20.7Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.9 ±11.7

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 18.58Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 19.17Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 31.37Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8758, 8746, 8738

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8758, 8746, 8738

Auto

1.3 4%

Teleop

15.7 46%

Endgame

17.5 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11353, 6242, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11353, 6242, 8205

Auto

30.4 44%

Teleop

25.7 37%

Endgame

13.2 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.7pts

Blue projected score69.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.4
Score range: 15–88
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.6Season APEX133.9

1.3Auto30.4

15.7Teleop25.7

17.5Endgame13.2

17Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	35	36
endgame	10	19
foul	0	0
total	62	78

Result

Final score

62 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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