Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

258.11 – 296.41

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.4 ±9.8

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 184.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 24.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 49.8Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.1 ±12

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 32.95Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 22.78Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 240.68Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 5607, 5160

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9032, 5607, 5160

Auto

49.3 19%

Teleop

155.8 61%

Endgame

49.4 19%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5518, 11161, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5518, 11161, 9496

Auto

64.1 22%

Teleop

170.2 58%

Endgame

58.9 20%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score258.1pts

Blue projected score296.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.3
Score range: 239–315
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 103.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.4Season APEX380.1

49.3Auto64.1

155.8Teleop170.2

49.4Endgame58.9

28Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	38
teleop	140	162
endgame	92	33
foul	25	0
total	289	233

Result

Final score

289 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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