Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49 – 67.48

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.6 ±11.7

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 20.13Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 33.48Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -4.61Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.9 ±10.4

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 30.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 23.14Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 14.15Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10121, 10302, 10260

/ 100 compat

Projected

49 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10121, 10302, 10260

Auto

21.2 46%

Teleop

16.8 36%

Endgame

8.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2682, 10077, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2682, 10077, 10248

Auto

14.2 22%

Teleop

30.6 47%

Endgame

20.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49pts

Blue projected score67.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.5
Score range: 30–86
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 104.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.6Season APEX231.9

21.2Auto14.2

16.8Teleop30.6

8.1Endgame20

73Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	17
teleop	22	41
endgame	10	27
foul	5	0
total	62	85

Result

Final score

62 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree