Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.94 – 78.8

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86.4 ±12.1

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 7.15Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 10.1Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 12.69Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.3 ±10.4

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 23.38Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 26.13Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 29.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5190, 3893, 6908

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5190, 3893, 6908

Auto

13.9 62%

Teleop

4.1 18%

Endgame

4.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8746, 11353, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8746, 11353, 5607

Auto

28.7 39%

Teleop

31.1 42%

Endgame

14.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.9pts

Blue projected score78.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.9
Score range: 11–98
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86.4Season APEX154.3

13.9Auto28.7

4.1Teleop31.1

4.5Endgame14.1

92Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	21
teleop	20	24
endgame	1	6
foul	0	0
total	36	51

Result

Final score

36 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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