Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.23 – 232.86

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.3 ±9.5

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX -9.05Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 224.55Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 31.73Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±12.4

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -0.77Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 195.25Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 38.38Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5511, 9496, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5511, 9496, 6004

Auto

58.3 24%

Teleop

136.0 55%

Endgame

52.5 21%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8758, 9032, 6242

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8758, 9032, 6242

Auto

46.5 20%

Teleop

151.0 64%

Endgame

38.8 16%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.2pts

Blue projected score232.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.4
Score range: 215–265
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 102.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.3Season APEX335.6

58.3Auto46.5

136Teleop151

52.5Endgame38.8

133Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	13
teleop	192	74
endgame	84	72
foul	0	5
total	307	164

Result

Final score

307 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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