Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.71 – 72.85

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.1 ±11.7

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 31.95Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -4.42Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 80.18Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247 ±11

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 33.95Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 25.95Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 12.95Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11353, 10260, 6500

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11353, 10260, 6500

Auto

26.7 26%

Teleop

56.8 55%

Endgame

20.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 2682, 6908

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 2682, 6908

Auto

19.8 29%

Teleop

22.2 33%

Endgame

25.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.7pts

Blue projected score72.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.9
Score range: 54–127
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 103.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.1Season APEX247

26.7Auto19.8

56.8Teleop22.2

20.6Endgame25.4

43Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	18
teleop	32	18
endgame	15	12
foul	0	15
total	66	63

Result

Final score

66 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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