Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.84 – 52.26

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.2 ±11.7

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 19.28Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 9.8Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 27.76Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.3 ±11.7

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 25.05Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 21.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 5.51Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11161, 8738, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11161, 8738, 10077

Auto

10.0 19%

Teleop

28.2 53%

Endgame

15.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6888, 8746, 9296

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6888, 8746, 9296

Auto

13.1 26%

Teleop

32.9 65%

Endgame

4.5 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.8pts

Blue projected score52.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.6
Score range: 33–76
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 104.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.2Season APEX142.3

10Auto13.1

28.2Teleop32.9

15.4Endgame4.5

51Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	11
teleop	48	31
endgame	8	24
foul	0	0
total	79	66

Result

Final score

79 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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